The Trump economic BOOM

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Calculations by me

Source:   https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032

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if anyone cares, data is available back through 2008. here's my annual (yoy) changes for the entire available period (starts in 2009 as you need previous year to calculate the change):

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Is this your hobby?

zoning?  zoning's a hobby.  Economic analysis is more like my job.

David Frum tweeted a chart, I decided to see if it was accurate.

It was.

But I have more credibility, imho, than the guy Frum retweeted.

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I can see why you didn't chart all the available data.

Would charting all the available data changed anything about the implication of the chart, ender?

If so, how is the chart misleading?

t.jpeg...

>> If so, how is the chart misleading?

It shows that over the long run wages aren't keeping up with inflation, regardless of who is president.

And as someone who is allocated to 90% equities, I'm sure you've familiar with how domestic corporate profits are faring under Trump.

>>>   It shows that over the long run wages aren't keeping up with inflation, regardless of who is president.

ender,

if real wages grow, then, by definition, wages grew faster than inflation, correct?

So the bls data show that wages grew during 2008-2016, correct?  

(hint, if the line goes up, that's a "yes")

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032

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i sure don't need a chart to tell me how deep we are getting boned...

>> (hint, if the line goes up, that's a "yes")

The line goes up for the rich. Not for anyone else. No matter who is president.

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>>>>   And as someone who is allocated to 90% equities, I'm sure you've familiar with how domestic corporate profits are faring under Trump.

 

Before-tax or after tax?

Before-tax they are down a bit during the first  past year of the Trump presidency (q12018 vs q12017):

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=krDj

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After-tax, corporate profits are up by less than 3% (2018Q1 v 2017 q1), which is puzzling as the tax cuts were significant....if a company was paying 35% and nothing else changed but the tax rate, then Q12018 after-tax income should have risen by  about 23% (80%/65%-1). 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=krC0

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ender, you have a link to data for your charts?

I'd be glad to look at the data for the Pew chart.

Well gents, maybe you can put it in real terms for the idiots like me:

I got a 1.5% cost of living pay increase, as well as shiny new medical deductibles and out of pocket max.

Am I getting fucked with lube or without?

What does this mean in terms of how much more marijuana Nugs can buy? That's the #1 question

Here's FRED on median hourly real earnings (1982-1984 dollars):  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=kbTC

From Q1 1997 through Q1 2017 (20 years), real median wages grew from 313 to 351, about 12%.

From Q1 2007 through Q1 2017 (10 years), real median wages grew from 336 to 351, about 4.5%

During the past year (Q12018 v Q12017), median real wages dropped slightly, from 351 to 350  (1982-84 dollars).

 

 

Hillman gets to the real point:  weed prices have plunged, so all is good!

 

 

>> ender, you have a link to data for your charts?

It's BLS, not Pew. The data is here: https://www.bls.gov/

Fine, you don't have a link to the data. 

In the 12 months through June, the CPI increased 2.9 percent, the biggest gain since February 2012.

>> I got a 1.5% cost of living pay increase, as well as shiny new medical deductibles and out of pocket max.

1.5% < 2.9%, so you got a pay cut over last year.

 

>>>  I got a 1.5% cost of living pay increase, as well as shiny new medical deductibles and out of pocket max.

>>>   Am I getting fucked with lube or without?

 

probably without lube.

All else equal, cost of living increase should have been at least 2.1% (calendar year 2017: CPI(u) went from 244 to 249:  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=krGA

so when they offer a 1-2% "raise" its really a pay cut...

>> you don't have a link to the data. 

Yeah, I can't figure out how to get quartile data frm this form: https://data.bls.gov/PDQWeb/le

>> so when they offer a 1-2% "raise" its really a pay cut...

Yeah, the only way I've found to get real non-inflationary raises is to switch jobs and/or get a promotion.

SAINT STEPHEEEEEEN!!!

i guess no one has a 401k here?

>>>>>What does this mean in terms of how much more marijuana Nugs can buy? That's the #1 question

Oh Pillman county did you miss me? What no black people at the complex pool to call security on. How's your "no on pot" but "yes to opioid" state doing?? 

what in the fuck are you on about nugs? i have no idea what this opioid shit is you're spewing, please elaborate

oh wait

 

marijuana

mumble

fascists/nazis

mumble

marijuana

mumble 

feel the bern

mumble 

marijuana

eliminate electoral college

mumble

marijuana

mumble

marijuana

mumble

alternet

mumble

marijuana

 

got it

Ooof

>>>      i guess no one has a 401k here?

 

you are new, huh.

 

 

hillman's entertaining me in this thread

pillman, lol.

 

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TRUMP Was Secretly at Build A Bear Events Across America............Epic Fail.

candyfrog ain't new.

Yes, there is a huge economic boom and the way it has been orchestrated it will all come crashing the fuck down in four or five years. Trump is smart in the fact that he knows this and will prob tank the next election on purpose and get the fuck out outta dodge. I mean he’s gotta be looking for a way to rob the fuck out the country, right?

What boom?

Did you miss the charts?

Or are you listening to the orange shitgibbon?

https://www.factcheck.org/2018/07/trump-inflates-gdp-growth/

In an interview with The Sun in England, President Donald Trump claimed “the GDP since I’ve taken over has doubled and tripled.”...

"doubled and tripled”

follow up on wages and corporate profits:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/13/business/economy/wages-workers-profit...?

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It still seems odd that corp profits apparently didn't rise (yet) after the corporate tax cuts (considering also the prior FRED profit charts....I don't get why the Times did it that way, unless to confuse people)