Iran v. Israel

I think it is just drones so far......

who built them?, sold them?... y'all ready for WWIII ? 

No, preferably not. But Iran has now launched ballistic missiles. Fuck.

Because Israel has been demonstrating just that kind of restraint of late.

It's about time the Iranians are liberated.  Give the country back to the Zoroastrians!

john bolton right now

Why anyone would listen to John Bolton is beyond me. Comes out talking shit about Trump to sell his book, but when the country needed him to testify under oath in either the impeachment trails or the Jan 6th committee he took a pass. Fuck him. 

Hmm I really thought that the fact that almost nothing happened to Israel was because Iran wanted to put on a show for the locals but really didn't want to poke the bear, but it's looking like that isn't the case and they really were trying to bomb the shit out of Israel. 

The US military is really an amazing force. I just wish everything in our society worked with the efficiency of our military. 

For more on this. 

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/getting-into-the-details-on-what-ha...

What Iran did was really fucked up. If even 10% of the ballistic missiles landed it would have been a level of carnage we haven't seen. I figured they knew a lot would get blown out of the sky, so they launched 300+ to ensure some major damage. No such luck. The whole thing was telegraphed, which was super strange.

What does Israel do now? Around mid-day Sunday I saw a quote from Bibi that said, "Our response will be dependent on how bad we are hurt." That quote was later pulled. They weren't hurt, but Israel's biggest defense is always the threat of their retaliation. Do they "need" to retaliate for this? Was the larger message from Iran, "Fuck with our nuclear program again, on our soil, and all bets are off"? Israel has bombed Iran's nuclear plants a few times over the last decade or so. Was this their warning message to to West on that?

I think there's a lot of optics going on here. Iran sees how the left in the West has completely vilified Israel, and they are capitalizing on it. There were definitely people saying to themselves, if not out loud, "Too bad if Israel is destroyed, they deserve it." That attitude is clearly driving Hamas's unwillingness to compromise on a ceasefire or even consider releasing the hostages (if there are any left). Did they miscalculate? Ther US definitely won't stop selling arms to Israel now, had this attack not happened we may have. Will at least some people open their eyes and see that Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and other players want to destroy Israel and all 7.5 million inhabitants, and it's not hyperbole?

This whole episode (10/7 on) started with Iran and it's going to end with Iran. That much I know.

The US was never going to stop selling arms to Israel Brian.

not before 

not now

they're USA's #1 custy

why anyone would need to go as far into john boltons career as the trump era to determine he is a revolting human being is beyond me.

in a just world, the dude would have been, at the very least, ejected from politics decades prior the trump. the fact that hes still around is an embarrassment, and the fact that the dogshit subhumans on msm channels like fox, cnn and msnbc still interview this guy and broadcast his foreign policy opinions to the world should in and of itself be grounds for ejection from public life in any decent society.

i see these warmonger neocons as significantly worse than trump. the fact that the msm still gargles boltons nuts while bloviating about the bad orange man saying mean things or engaging in financial crimes is totally absurd and really shows how self centered most americans are when it comes to geopolitics.

I'll concede that, Bss. We would have screamed about it but still kept selling. Optics...

The US sold billions of dollars in arms to Iran through the end of the 70s, and trained their fighter pilots over here in Texas. We'll do anything for a buck.

Issues Related To U. S. Military Sales And Assistance To Iran (October 1974)

https://www.gao.gov/assets/b-133258.pdf

Iranians bombing Israel (though measured, and also telegraphed) was a proximate military response to Israel blowing up an Iranian consulate (which is a hella international no-no, even for countries actively engaged in war).

The larger problem is now we have two nuclear powers, both with maniac leaders, now engaging in mutual missile shooting without the use of proxies.

which is why sleepy joe correctly emphasized right up front that this isn't our fight.

until it is, of course.

It's America that supports Israel not Biden. You would be hard pressed to find a more bipartisan issue in America today. Biden is just a mirror of that support. 60% of Americans still support Israel.

You have to change the minds of Americans if you want the to reign in Israel. The pro Gaza forces in America take every opportunity to repel allies. It's 100% their way or you support genocide, but yeah shut another bridge down that has always helped build coalitions. The best way to stop America from supporting Bibi led Israel is to reach out to American Jews, but that ship has sailed. 

If Biden stopped aid to Israel tomorrow - Trump would win in November and six months later Gaza would be glass. 

>>The best way to stop America from supporting Bibi led Israel is to reach out to American Jews, but that ship has sailed.

I don't agree with this, at all. It implies that American Jews have some sort of power and sway over long-term US/Israeli policy. AIPAC may have some, but it's nowhere close to what people think. Our policy is based on guilt going back to 1947 and a reality that without our support the nation of Israel would have been destroyed decades ago and millions killed.

People also don't realize that about 70% of US private financial support for Israel is from evangelical Christians, and they are the ones with the power and sway.

However much a scum Bibi is, I've recently learned the Israeli  battle-plan in Gaza would probably be very similar with a much more moderate leader. The general consensus over there is, "Hamas has to go, and no hostages, no dice." It's amazing how little international pressure (or even from the pro Gaza folks) there is on Hamas to release the hostages. They keep turning down sweetheart ceasefire deals, demanding a full Israeli withdrawal that won't happen. Israel did offer full withdrawal, with a pan Arab peacekeeping force moving in, but Hamas and Iran want no part of that because they know it means giving up power.

We all may have disagreements on a lot of this stuff, but maybe we all agree that peace is in everyone's best interests.

here comes the gas gouge

leading up to the election

thanks joe

from Robert Reich: 

Biden’s 2nd term proposals:

-Make corporations & wealthy pay their fair share

-Protect Social Security and Medicare from cuts

-Universal Pre-K

-12 weeks paid family & medical leave

-Expand anti-poverty tax credits

Trump’s 2nd term proposals:

-More tax cuts for rich and corporations

-Reduce Social Security and Medicaid benefits

-Gut worker protections

-Mass deportations

-A new Muslim ban

and I'll add: 

- Trump's plan to  "finish the job" in Palestine and let Jared develop  Gaza as resort https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/19/jared-kushner-gaza-water...

X

Dear Israel,

Please take out the drone factories. 

Thanks

This is madness on such a scale. If it keeps growing it could certainly get out of anybody's control.  And then your guess is as good as mine. 

 Bizarre how this is playing out. As expected, Israel isn't claiming responsibility. However, the Pentagon has leaked that it's Israel, which is dumbfounding. Iran is saying it shot down 3 drones in an incursion, but hasn't named Israel and may not.

It seems that Iran wants to minimize this by not blaming Israel. They have to be nervous because 300 of their missiles/drones were shot down, and Israel has just shown that they can very easily strike deep in Iranian territory. The target, I guess, was right next to a nuclear facility. Let's hope this ends here.

I've been reading some chatter that regional partners and the US really want the Israeli campaign in Gaza to end and for them to really focus on Hezbollah, which is considered to be a much bigger threat to long-term stability. Who knows?

Personally, I think Israel should unilaterally pull out of Gaza altogether, give Hamas 7 days to return all hostages and bodies, release a bunch of Palestinians in administrative detention, keep increasing the amount of aid, and if rockets start flying or if hostages aren't released, figure out the next steps at that point. At the same time, immense pressure needs to be put on Qatar to stop playing both sides of the same coin and cozying up to both the US and Hamas. Force the to expel Hamas leaders, and for Christ-sakes, no longer allow them to maintain that fucking Martyr's Fund, where the families of terrorists that are killed or imprisoned get stipends for life. That fund is 100% Qatar.

Moving forward, I don't know what Gaza looks like. If there is a Palestinian state, how is that going to work? Gaza is cut off from the West Bank, and it's nothing like Alaska being separated by Canada.. It'll be quite a while before there's any level of trust on either side.

> Dear Israel, Please take out the drone factories.

This post makes me nostalgic for the time when Obama's use of drones was the problem.

I wouldn't be surprised if that was the factory that was making drones for Russia. The multidimensional geo political pushes and pulls of this conflict are next level. There is never anything simple about conflicts in the middle east. 

Yeah, the other day I read that there's a concern about spreading ourselves too thin if we're making weapons for Israel and Ukraine, and if we have the capacity to arm ourselves. It struck me that Iran is supplying Russia, Hezbollah, Houthis, a couple of other players, and themselves. Talk about spreading yourself thin. I bet Zelenskyy gave the loudest cheer yesterday.

It really sucks that we peace and love hippies have to be concerned about weapons production.

Just sayin'.

So true, Surf.

Ban the bomb, not the bong!

And, in honor of Bicycle Day:

Drop acid, not the bomb.

Netanyahu and Putin are buddies. Go figure that one.

Add trump to that buddy list.

Far right authoritarians unite! 

but I am sure some will try to blame Mossad for the incident

I was thinking the same thing

Raisi was known as the Butcher of Tehran, so I'm guessing a lot of Iranians won't mourn his passing.

Jewish Space Lasers!

He was evidently on a big execution kick as of late, something like 103 in the last few weeks.

Lots of tentative celebrations and fog in Iran today. I hope it turns out to be good news for them.

The guy executed thousands of political dissidents, and was the mastermind of the current war on women. It'll be hard to find someone quite as bad.

It's kind of strange that so many high up officials were in one copter. Isn't is sop to separate them so if there's an accident like this you don't lose so many people?

Ding dong the witch is dead. POS didn't deserve to go fast. At this point who the fuck gets into a helicopter on anything but a beautiful clear day, but it is also entirely possible that this was Israel since its not like they haven't assassinated plenty of nuclear scientists in Iran.  You know the rulers in Iran are looking over their shoulders this morning. 

ICC ruling today, with warrants issued for Hamas leadership regarding 10/7 and continued crimes, and Israeli leadership for halting aid to Gaza:

By seeking these warrants, Khan said, “We once again underline that international law and the laws of armed conflict apply to all. No foot soldier, no commander, no civilian leader – no one – can act with impunity.

“This is how we will prove, tangibly, that the lives of all human beings have equal value,” Khan said.

“If we do not demonstrate our willingness to apply the law equally if it is seen as being applied selectively, we will be creating the conditions for its collapse,” Khan explained.

“Nothing can justify willfully depriving human beings, including so many women and children, of the basic necessities required for life. Nothing can justify the taking of hostages or the targeting of civilians,” he stated.

He shot back at those who have accused the court of political motivations or who have called for sanctions against it.

“I insist that all attempts to impede, intimidate, or improperly influence the officials of this Court must cease immediately. My Office will not hesitate to act pursuant to article 70 of the Rome Statute if such conduct continues,” he stated.

Definitely not Israel. Raisi was a domestic policy guy. Very little impetus for any foreign player to off him. Just a wholesome accident.

Well the foreign minister was also on board. We will never know for sure unless Trump becomes President and leaks it to impress somebody, but I would say that Israel views every Iranian government official the same way we viewed members of Al Quida after 9/11. Let's just say I would avoid hanging out near them. 

It was definitely the Mossad agent Eli Kopter.

They seem to be leaning towards August 13, to coincide with Tisha B'av. 

Crazy how the Mossad was able to get the precise information on which hotel and which room Haniyeh was staying in Tehran, get their agents in there beforehand to plant a bomb in his room, then successfully detonate it and get their agents out of the country.  Probably a lot of paranoid Arabic leaders out there right now.

Let's not jump to conclusions. Israel hasn't claimed credit. It could have been Sinwar who did it.

You can never tell the weather. Could be a Sunni day or a Shia day.... 

I don't know, BK, it's pretty much straight out of the playbook that was dramatized in Stephen Spielberg's Munich.

The Israeli's have already stated that they did not fire any missiles, or launch drones or manned flights at Iran.  The Iranians initially stated that it had been such an attack, but reports are saying now that it was a bomb planted in his room that was remotely detonated.

My money is on the Mossad.

Doesn't sound like the Iranians are planning on going nuclear with whatever their response is, but it probably will get pretty ugly.

Hope cooler heads prevail, and both theocracies get a new generation of progressive leaders.  The people living in that region of the world deserve so much better.

I know, the sarcasm was lost.

https://m.youtube.com/live/1HuJbJPBXq0?si=q7WxdW8B7kSFgK_3
 

Lindsey's press conference...

Last time, the Israelis shot down most of the Iranian missiles, but didn't directly retaliate against Iran.   We'll see how it goes this time.

The IDF just released this image showing where air-raid alerts have sounded.  Also reports of a terrorist shooting in Tel Aviv.  

Looking forward to a liberated Iran. 

From CNN:

“Iran’s legal, rational, and legitimate response to the terrorist acts of the Zionist regime—which involved targeting Iranian nationals and interests and infringing upon the national sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran—has been duly carried out,” the Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations said in a post on X.

The mission said that if Israel should “dare to respond or commit further acts of malevolence, a subsequent and crushing response will ensue.”

The mission added that “regional states and the Zionists’ supporters are advised to part ways with the regime.”

Quite rich that Iran is telling the world to part ways with Israel "or else." Bibi's probably going to take out the fucking Ayatollah now.

And… so… Is Iran also claiming responsibility for Hezbollah. Saying that they are nationals…

They sure are, or at the least they're "Iranian interests."

extremists are in control of everything on all sides.