A tropical storm hit in 1939 and a hurricane hit way back in the 1850s. Place has grown considerably since then and you have to imagine the possibility of terrible flooding and mudslides in the mountains. Looks like Death Valley might get up to 10 inches of rain. Surfing is going to be gnarly.
I hope the rains are mostly beneficial and not destructive. It is highly beneficial that this major rainfall coincides with the peak of the sonoran desert toad's reproductive cycle.
We did have 6.5" of rain over the course of 6 hrs Sunday night/ Monday morning. While it was a lot in a short bit, it seems to be pretty much the norm any more. :( Feast or famine.
> It is highly beneficial that this major rainfall coincides with the peak of the sonoran desert toad's reproductive cycle.
And it doesn't hurt that it's coming right right in the middle of fire season too.
My local forecast is for about 3 inches of rain on Sunday and Monday, and I'm very much looking forward to it. We get mudslides occasionally, but they usually just disrupt traffic and are not the devastating kind.
Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the Southwestern United States through next Wednesday, peaking on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California and southern Nevada. Rare and dangerous flooding will be possible. Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected.
The High pressure system in Texas will likely be the main steering force for Hurricane Hilary. This would cause the storm to turn a bit east as it heads north, but often what happens is the abundant moisture creates many thunderstorms, which drops the pressure, and likely strengthens that low off the Cali coast, and possibly cause the High pressure system to retrograde westward a bit. That's what it would take to bring the storm west of the Cascades for OR / WA. Right now the models give that a 10% chance, but something we'll be keeping an eye on
SATURDAY NIGHT
Wind variable less than 10 knots...becoming north 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots after midnight. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. Mixed swell west 2 feet at 5 seconds and south 2 to 3 feet at 15 seconds. A chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers likely after midnight.
SUNDAY
Wind north 15 to 25 knots...becoming 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less...becoming 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Mixed swell northwest 2 to 4 feet at 6 seconds and south 2 to 4 feet at 16 seconds. Showers likely in the morning. A slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers in the afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT
Wind northwest 30 to 40 knots...becoming south after midnight. Gusts to 55 knots. Combined seas 6 to 8 feet dominant period 6 seconds. Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
MONDAY
Wind south 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots... becoming around 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots in the afternoon. Wind waves 5 to 6 feet...subsiding to 4 feet in the afternoon. Mixed swell west 2 to 5 feet and south 3 to 6 feet. Showers likely in the morning. A slight chance of thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Noodler and Turtle, I'm sure your posts are most likely more accurate yet ABC World News Tonight tracker shows the storm still registering a Class 1 hurricane over S.D and L.A.
The mountains should tear up the circulation pretty quickly, but there will be a lot of convection for sure. Meanwhile, it should be noted that the low(s) off the Cali coast are what's left of Tropical Storm Eugene, so the pattern is already somewhat established.
I'm wondering what kind of monster storm surge will be surging up the Sea of Cortez if this thing stays the course. Hurricane force winds blowing from the south up that narrow channel could pile up an awful lot of water near the Colorado River mouth. Luckily an area with low population.
The net effect in western Oregon, is it's bringing forest fire smoke from all the WA / BC fires down into our area. Surface smoke though (much of the smoke from the OR Cascade fires stays above ground, except locally). The rains will most likely stay east of us. Good luck to all those in the flood areas!
Bad air now in the Gorge, a few hours ago it was sill up in NE WA, it'll slowly fill the Portland area, then works its way down the valley this evening.
An hour later, and forest fire smoke has inundated the Portland area, and is already advancing down the valley. Breath while ya can, hopefully be gone Monday afternoon.
Hilary has been weakening, and shedding her moisture to the north at a pretty quick pace, but so far mostly high clouds. Meanwhile, what's left of T.S. Eugene is producing some decent thunderstorms with hail / flash flooding up in NW Cali. Kind of what I was expecting, now will it bring Hilaries moisture farther west, remains to be seen... but this would be the scenerio that could do it.
San Diego radar not showing much, a few storms in the mountains, and some mid level moisture
Meanwhile in northern Cal, some serious thumpage has just started
Nothing here yet, except clouds and wind. Kinda surprised to see that the mountains east of Bakersfield are getting rain already. That's about 50 miles northeast of me.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Lance minimum goad Newberry
SoCal is where the trouble
It sounds like SoCal is where the trouble lurks.
Up here in the BA they're saying we'll get some solid rain, but not brutal winds or flooding.
Way to take the brunt SoCal. We're right behind you all the way.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: jazfish
Has a hurricane ever hit San
Has a hurricane ever hit San Diego and Los Angeles? Seems like a first.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Ken D.
A tropical storm hit in 1939
A tropical storm hit in 1939 and a hurricane hit way back in the 1850s. Place has grown considerably since then and you have to imagine the possibility of terrible flooding and mudslides in the mountains. Looks like Death Valley might get up to 10 inches of rain. Surfing is going to be gnarly.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Druba
We had a hurricane throw it's
We had a hurricane throw it's moisture up into Oregon right after the Veneta 82 show, got dumped on.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Lance minimum goad Newberry
I can hear the eastie
I can hear the eastie transplants in SoCal now...
"You call this a hurricane?!? This ain't no hurricane. Hurricanes back east are WAY better than this. You people don't know shit from hurricanes."
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Imagine
Well... You prolly don't.
Well... You prolly don't.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Def. High
Lock her up.
Lock her up.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: An organ grinder’s tune
>Has a hurricane ever hit San
>Has a hurricane ever hit San Diego and Los Angeles? Seems like a first.<
1939. fucked shit up.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Philzone Refugee
On the bright side, I'm sure
On the bright side, I'm sure Skid Row can use a good rinse.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: jazfish
Hope you all get prepared and
Hope you all get prepared and stay safe. I can only imagine the mudslides and hope there are no Maui type fires.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: dimethyllovebeam
I hope the rains are mostly
I hope the rains are mostly beneficial and not destructive. It is highly beneficial that this major rainfall coincides with the peak of the sonoran desert toad's reproductive cycle.
We did have 6.5" of rain over the course of 6 hrs Sunday night/ Monday morning. While it was a lot in a short bit, it seems to be pretty much the norm any more. :( Feast or famine.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Semolina Pilchard
> It is highly beneficial
> It is highly beneficial that this major rainfall coincides with the peak of the sonoran desert toad's reproductive cycle.
And it doesn't hurt that it's coming right right in the middle of fire season too.
My local forecast is for about 3 inches of rain on Sunday and Monday, and I'm very much looking forward to it. We get mudslides occasionally, but they usually just disrupt traffic and are not the devastating kind.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Druba
Here's what the latest model
Here's what the latest model runs are showing...
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Semolina Pilchard
Of course hurricanes don't
Of course hurricanes don't follow models, but that graphic makes it look like there's a good chance Hilary will swing east.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: El Nino
Heavy rainfall in association
Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the Southwestern United States through next Wednesday, peaking on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California and southern Nevada. Rare and dangerous flooding will be possible. Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Druba
The High pressure system in
The High pressure system in Texas will likely be the main steering force for Hurricane Hilary. This would cause the storm to turn a bit east as it heads north, but often what happens is the abundant moisture creates many thunderstorms, which drops the pressure, and likely strengthens that low off the Cali coast, and possibly cause the High pressure system to retrograde westward a bit. That's what it would take to bring the storm west of the Cascades for OR / WA. Right now the models give that a 10% chance, but something we'll be keeping an eye on
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: An organ grinder’s tune
SATURDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT
Wind variable less than 10 knots...becoming north 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots after midnight. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. Mixed swell west 2 feet at 5 seconds and south 2 to 3 feet at 15 seconds. A chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers likely after midnight.
SUNDAY
Wind north 15 to 25 knots...becoming 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less...becoming 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Mixed swell northwest 2 to 4 feet at 6 seconds and south 2 to 4 feet at 16 seconds. Showers likely in the morning. A slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers in the afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT
Wind northwest 30 to 40 knots...becoming south after midnight. Gusts to 55 knots. Combined seas 6 to 8 feet dominant period 6 seconds. Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
MONDAY
Wind south 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots... becoming around 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots in the afternoon. Wind waves 5 to 6 feet...subsiding to 4 feet in the afternoon. Mixed swell west 2 to 5 feet and south 3 to 6 feet. Showers likely in the morning. A slight chance of thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: jazfish
ABC World News Tonight
Noodler and Turtle, I'm sure your posts are most likely more accurate yet ABC World News Tonight tracker shows the storm still registering a Class 1 hurricane over S.D and L.A.
Wild.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Lance minimum goad Newberry
>>>Well... You prolly don't<<
>>>Well... You prolly don't<<<
That is an accurate statement, and in that vein, what's the difference between a knot and a mile per hour?
Being a lifelong westie landlubber I only relate to MPH.
Either way, it sounds serious. Hang on down there!
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Druba
The mountains should tear up
The mountains should tear up the circulation pretty quickly, but there will be a lot of convection for sure. Meanwhile, it should be noted that the low(s) off the Cali coast are what's left of Tropical Storm Eugene, so the pattern is already somewhat established.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: An organ grinder’s tune
my concerns are with the
my concerns are with the residents of central and n. baja. I hope those less fortunate folks fair ok...
One knot equals one nautical mile per hour, or roughly 1.15 statute mph.
salton sea is gonna get wet.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Semolina Pilchard
> Skid Row can use a good
> Skid Row can use a good rinse
> salton sea is gonna get wet
I'm sure Slab City could use a good rinse too.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Racketinmyhead
Heavy Santa Ana wind like
Heavy Santa Ana wind like speeds with heavy rain. I better go stock up on some toilet paper, maybe some Bud lights too!
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Def. High
I'm wondering what kind of
I'm wondering what kind of monster storm surge will be surging up the Sea of Cortez if this thing stays the course. Hurricane force winds blowing from the south up that narrow channel could pile up an awful lot of water near the Colorado River mouth. Luckily an area with low population.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: The Sound of Steam and Caffeine
I have tickets for My Morning
I have tickets for My Morning Jacket at the Hollywood Bowl on Sunday. Any chance this will happen?
The Dodgers and the Angels already rescheduled their Sunday games.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Semolina Pilchard
Looks like 2-3 inches of rain
Looks like 2-3 inches of rain forecast for Hollywood on Sunday between 5 PM and midnight, Zooey.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/hollywood/90028/tropical-weather-forec...
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: An organ grinder’s tune
Rain or shine yo
Rain or shine yo
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Druba
Here's the LA NWS weather
Here's the LA NWS weather discussion(s)
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=afdlox
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: The Sound of Steam and Caffeine
...
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Semolina Pilchard
(No subject)
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Semolina Pilchard
(No subject)
double
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Druba
The net effect in western
The net effect in western Oregon, is it's bringing forest fire smoke from all the WA / BC fires down into our area. Surface smoke though (much of the smoke from the OR Cascade fires stays above ground, except locally). The rains will most likely stay east of us. Good luck to all those in the flood areas!
Bad air now in the Gorge, a few hours ago it was sill up in NE WA, it'll slowly fill the Portland area, then works its way down the valley this evening.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Druba
An hour later, and forest
An hour later, and forest fire smoke has inundated the Portland area, and is already advancing down the valley. Breath while ya can, hopefully be gone Monday afternoon.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Druba
Hilary has been weakening,
Hilary has been weakening, and shedding her moisture to the north at a pretty quick pace, but so far mostly high clouds. Meanwhile, what's left of T.S. Eugene is producing some decent thunderstorms with hail / flash flooding up in NW Cali. Kind of what I was expecting, now will it bring Hilaries moisture farther west, remains to be seen... but this would be the scenerio that could do it.
San Diego radar not showing much, a few storms in the mountains, and some mid level moisture
Meanwhile in northern Cal, some serious thumpage has just started
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Semolina Pilchard
Nothing here yet. Kinda
Nothing here yet, except clouds and wind. Kinda surprised to see that the mountains east of Bakersfield are getting rain already. That's about 50 miles northeast of me.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: r n
Yea Mexicali and Palm Springs
Yea Mexicali and Palm Springs getting it before San Diego
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Druba
Here's a few weather records
Here's a few weather records broken on August 20th, in Cali;
https://weather-reporter.com/report?report=25&state=&station=0&report_pe...