The next big war may may be coming soon

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Does anyone here follow geopolitics/ military maneuvers?

Some worrying developments are taking place in the world while we here in the USA are consumed with news about sleazy politicians, gender issues and police brutality.

Prediction: Russia invades Ukraine. While our back is turned, China tries to assimilate Taiwan.

Not to mention Israel and Iran are escalating their tit for tat.

Am I just being paranoid?

>>>Am I just being paranoid?

No not at all.  I agree on your assessments on both Russia/Ukraine and China/Taiwan.  Very, very concerning.

I am concerned, esp. about China-Taiwan.

Historically, empire building, conquest and expansion may pause, but it never stops. The rest of the world may no longer share our post WW2 belief that the USA is the top dog and what we say, goes.

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Not to mention the last Russian hack probably revealed all our battle plans and strategies.

Plus, lots of adversaries are lined up to throw a wrench in our Intenet-connected realities whenever the chance presents itself.

Could be a shitshow.

One of my main concers is that Biden will rush into a conflict to prove he's not old and weak. And Dems will sign on for political reasons.

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Don't worry, Alan R. We hack them too. Only crazies believe that Russia is are the only ones who hack. Russia and China have been setting up a neutrality agreement for a while. They are trying to flex muscles and gain more control with oil production and transportation. It is definitely something they would need to ever challenge the USA for global dominance. On the other hand we still control and completely dominate the global oil trade and production. Our battle plans and strategies really are th e same as they have always been. Dominate oil and win the war. 
 

Pretty much they are saying the UN is just a joke and won't do shit, and they are right. They are also aware that we have many different hands in many different pots around the world, and they are right wi th that too. Biden has his hands full. 

Timpy...your post is about 64% wrong.

Re oil - we just saw how easy it is to muck up the Suez Canal.

And Russia has plenty of oil in Russia.

>>throw a wrench in our Intenet-connected realities

Or our power grid.

>>>Don't worry, Alan R. We hack them too.

Sure- we definitely hack no doubt.  I'm still concerned.  

> Timpy...your post is about 64% wrong.

Maybe Timpane thinks zoning is like baseball, and batting .360 is something to write home about.

China is just making noise over Taiwan like it has for decades.   We are far from the level of tensions that existed in the late 1950s.

I heard about the Russian buildup along the Ukrainian border, but Russia already has had an established military presence in the disputed Donbass region since 2014, and its probably just in support of that. 

Israel v. Iran seems to be the one with the most potential to blow up.   They are already in a hot (albeit low level) shooting war and it wouldn't take much of misstep or miscalculation to really escalate things.

Israel and Iran have been doing the same shit for 2 decades. Iran says they'll blow Israel off the face of the Earth if they get nukes. Israel bombs their nuclear facilities. They have little slap fights in neighboring countries. Rinse, repeat.

Nobody wants a ground war in Israel. It was tried a few times and never worked.

I hope you are right Ken. Some of the things I'm reading are concerning. The prevailing view seems to be, "What the fck?," "How serious is Putin?," and "Hope he doesn't escalate because then we will have to respond."  Two recent articles:

The Guns Of April: Six Questions About The New Russia-Ukraine Tensions

Train convoys of heavy Russian military equipment, seen on multiple videos on social media, reportedly shipping from Siberia to the border regions of Ukraine.

The Kerch Strait Bridge to the occupied Crimean Peninsula shut down briefly, apparently for a major shipment of weaponry.

An uptick in shelling along the line of control separating Ukrainian forces from Russia-backed fighters in eastern Ukraine. Ominous rhetoric on Russian state TV.

Is the Ukrainian-Russian "cold war" about to go "hot"?

https://www.rferl.org/a/six-questions-russia-ukraine-military-buildup/31...

EUCOM raises threat level for Ukraine as Russia builds up forces

The situation in Ukraine prompted Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley on the same day to connect with his counterparts in both Russia and Ukraine, in an attempt to de-escalate a situation that has prompted fears within Ukraine of a looming Russian offensive.

Gen. Tod Wolters in the past week raised EUCOM’s watch level for Ukraine from possible crisis to potential imminent crisis — the highest level, The New York Times reported Wednesday. EUCOM declined to comment on the threat level change, but said it is monitoring events in Ukraine carefully.

https://www.stripes.com/news/europe/eucom-raises-threat-level-for-ukrain...

Stop in for a little passive trolling, Ned? Funny, you say I'm wrong but provide no counter argument to anything I said. I know it's because you have none but you could at least try. 
 

Isreal and Iran>>>>
 

Only difference is that Russia, USA and China are the major super powers in the world, but yes the power flex in these areas has been going on for a while now. China is going to make some major moves in the next twenty years or so, and they get stronger and stronger every year. Not sure if war is in the cards but they want to be the main super power in the world.

It could all be "grey" zone tactics, but it has the decision makers on alert. One recent article:

Can China impose military force against Taiwan?

A top US military commander has warned that China's threat to invade Taiwan with military force has become more pressing than many people understand, warning that Beijing considers reclaiming control over Taiwan its "number one priority."

"My opinion is that this problem is much closer to us than most think," said Admiral John Aquilino, the Biden administration's nominee for the commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command.

"The most dangerous concern is that of a military force against Taiwan," he stressed during a senate confirmation hearing on Tuesday.

Earlier this month, US Commander Philip Davidson of the Asia-Pacific region said he expects China to advance  towards democratic Taiwan "in the next six years."

"I worry that they're [China] accelerating their ambitions to supplant the US and our leadership role in the rules-based international order by 2050," Davidson said during a senate committee meeting earlier this month. "Taiwan is clearly one of their ambitions before that. And I think the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact, in the next six years."

But some experts see a China military attack on Taiwan as unlikely.

https://www.dw.com/en/can-china-impose-military-force-against-taiwan/a-5...

 

I heard a story on NPR last month about a new book, "2034: A Novel of the Next World War," about a possible future war with China.   The interview with the authors (retired military officers) was interesting, especially the cyber war component:

https://www.newyorker.com/podcast/political-scene/2034-a-cautionary-tale...

It seems o me that in the age of global super economies, a major war would be of absolutely no benefit to any major player. China would lose a hell of a lot more than it would gain by invading Taiwan. Putin's last foray into Crimea had grave economic consequences..

How are the kids in Yemen doing? 

>>>China is just making noise over Taiwan like it has for decades. 

Sure but what's different now than decades past is how much more strong/significant China is in terms of economic and military capabilities.  Xi's ascendance in 2013 marked an end to "Hide & Bide" and they've taken a very, very nationalistic anti-western posture that's continuing to get more aggressive.

I read "Hidden Hand" this year and found it very unsettling.  A good read for anyone interested in the subject:

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>>>>How are the kids in Yemen doing? 

Still starving the last time I checked. 

Biden said he would stop supporting the war, but haven't heard of any changes in practice yet.   Turned into a real quagmire for the Saudis who are supposedly looking for a way out. 

Let's take a moment to reflect on what's truly important in this country......only 261 shopping days left until Christmas.

Shit popping off in Northern Ireland, riots last five nights  

Prod pro-Brexit types vs. Republican pro-EU Catholics pulling at the old scabs  

Trump's isolationism and general  incompetence helped the uneasy all over. 

 

Are India and China still throwing rocks at each other?   

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53071913

 

Everywhere is war...

russia been actively basing up in the arctic. 

Yet, we are in a period called "The Long Peace." From the end of WWII until now is the longest period in history that world powers have gone without being at war. I think that it's based on a longitudinal history, across continents. Fewer people have died in all conflicts and wars since the end of WWII than died in that war. As a percentage of world population, which has grown exponentially, it's really low.

All that means nothing to the people who have died, been injured, and to the rubble left behind.

 

<<Still starving the last time I checked. 

Still waiting for "genocide" to be used in terms of MBS slaughtering and starving the Shia, Houthi's. 

>>longest period in history that world powers have gone without being at war

Definitely but there sure have been proxy wars fought between sides with global power backers (Korean War, Vietnam War, etc)

I agree with BK that a super power war would just hurt the big players but I still think the big three will try to flex their powers as much as possible to see what they can get away with. The UN has made it clear that they will not get in any of their ways. China could invade Taiwan and then put Biden in a difficult situation. Either way he ends up fucked

Please continue to hold . . . . .

 

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