Parkfire

This fire was set Wednesday afternoon and at 0% containment is already in the top ten largest wildfires in California history

for comparison; the Dixie fire of 2021 (just shy of a million acres) burned for three weeks before it had grown to the current size of the park fire

I fear this is going to be really bad

Terrible. And the PTSD for Chico folks must be nearly untenable.

Places that haven't burned in more than 100 years, temperatures over 100 and windy conditions.

Very bad combo.

I'm sure it doesn't help that everyone knows some fucking asshole started this on purpose.....

Awful.

1 Arsonist ALL THAT DESTRUCTION.

The weather is shifting in ways that could really help the next few days.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
115 PM PDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Synopsis:

Cooler temperatures lasting through the middle of next week, then an increase in high temperatures. Onshore flow will help raise humidity values and lower fire weather risks. Locally breezy conditions in the Delta.

Key Points:

- Below normal temperatures with gradual warming trend by the middle of next week.

- Smoke and haze from California fires will effect the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills.

Discussion:

Much cooler temperatures being observed today with most areas 15 to 20 degrees cooler from yesterday. This is in response to upper trough that is moving across the area at this time. It has brought with it higher humidities (20% to 30% higher) across the area. This will allow a cool night with much better overnight/morning humidity recoveries. All the above definitely helping fire conditions on the Park Fire.

Sunday...good agreement in ensembles that main axis of upper trough will remain across the western U.S. but with some filling. This will result in slightly warmer temperatures but still generally 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Humidities still not a concern in the 20s and 30s.

Monday and Tuesday...above mentioned upper trough continues to fill and weaken, leaving us with a weak westerly onshore flow. End result is temperatures slowly climbing back up with highs by Tuesday near normal in the 90s. Onshore flow and weak southerly surface winds should for the most part keep smoke from Park fire to the north...but with the weaker flow some diurnal switches may let it sneak south a bit but no big push of wind shift expected.

Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday):

Fairly straight forward extended with no major impacts looking to be in play. Main story will be upper level ridge builds back into the area, which there is good ensemble agreement in and pretty small spread in NBM temperature percentiles. The axis of the ridge will be off to the east, which will open up the chance of some monsoonal moisture to drift north...but at this time nothing super moist expected so will continue to keep the forecast dry. Although temperatures will be rising again...not seeing any significant heat yet.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-121.59393310546875&lat=39...

Today was forecast in the 80's so I'm not sure if what we have here is cloud cover or smoke. Does not smell like smoke but kinda looks like it.  89 high today. Lowest high in many weeks.

Let's hope they can get a handle on this one soon.  We've got probably 3 months of fire season left and with the rainy winter we had, there is a lot to burn.

Total Acres: 307,369 acres.
Last Report: July 27 2024 10:07PM UTC
Previous report was 178,090 acres on July 27, indicating 129,279 acres of growth over 21 hours.

^ It's a gut punch, takes my breath away.