Hurricane Beryl

Hurricane Beryl at 4:20 this morning (pacific time)

Hurricane Beryl Landfall Carriacou raw power 4k - Eye wall of category 4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7ce0TUdiGc

There's quite a few different models out there, we've got several, many countries have their own, etc...    they all have different strengths and weaknesses.  Then there's the tropical models.  One problem, the math behind convection, and tropical weather, is of a different order of magnitude than modelling the jet stream (geostrophic flow)...  so they don't play well together, and a lot has changed since I was a student 40 years ago.  All models are decent within 48 hours with a few exceptions, beyond 72 hours they can go nuts...  but if they're in harmony in the long term then there's a better chance of verifying.  

I've noticed the Portland forecast discussion uses a lot more percentages these days based on what the various models say, due to their history of verifying, or not.  

Here's a link for PNW forecast discussions / forecasts; 
https://www.weather.gov/sew/forecasts

Sorry for the length, but here's todays afternoon weather discussion for Portland;   (I left out the marine and aviation part of the discussion).  It's amped up the temps quite a bit since this morning

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
400 PM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .
 

SYNOPSIS...Seasonable temperatures will continue through Wednesday as onshore flow continues. A very strong upper level ridge will then begin amplifying and moving into the Pacific Northwest beginning on the 4th of July, peaking in strength July 5-7. Confidence has increased for a significant heatwave during that time as the probability for high temps over 100 degrees has increased dramatically to 60-80% across the interior lowlands. && .

SHORT TERM...Monday night through Wednesday night...The short term forecast is highlighted by an onshore flow pattern with varying degrees of morning cloud cover, afternoon sunshine, and seasonable temperatures. In fact, Tuesday is shaping up to be slightly cooler with high temps generally in the mid to upper 70s across the interior lowlands and 60s at the coast. Wednesday looks to feature similar temperatures, albeit a few degrees warmer. As has been the case over the past several days, northerly to northwesterly surface winds will increase a bit in the afternoon each day, especially across the southern Willamette Valley where winds will likely gust up to 20 mph. This includes the Eugene-Springfield area. Overnight lows each night look to range between 45-55 degrees, warmest over the Portland metro. This will offer excellent overnight relief for those without air conditioning. However, this relief will be short-lived as a significant heatwave is expected to impact the region from July 4-7, and possibly even beyond July 7th. This heatwave is discussed in more detail below. -TK && .

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday night...The long term forecast is highlighted by a significant heatwave with record breaking temperatures now likely to occur. HeatRisk is now in the moderate to major category across all of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington, except for the coast where weak onshore flow looks to maintain much cooler temperatures when compared to inland locations. Before getting into the temperature forecast, would first like to discuss the synoptic scale setup in place. Models and their ensembles are now honed in on an upper level ridge amplifying over the western CONUS July 4-7, peaking in strength July 5-7. It appears an omega blocking pattern will develop during that time due to a closed upper level low over the northeast Pacific and another over the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. These two lows will help keep the ridge over the western CONUS locked in place for at least three to four days, potentially even longer than that.

With this impressive ridge in place, temperatures will become abnormally hot with record breaking high temperatures now likely to occur. The latest suite of model guidance continues trending warmer, with widespread high temps in the lower 100s for most valley locations away from the coast likely by July 5-6 according to the deterministic NBM. In fact, the probability for high temperatures above 100 degrees has increased dramatically to 60-80%. The warmest ensemble members from the EPS/GEFS suggest high temps close to 110 degrees or warmer, and the NBM is now showing a 15-30% chance for high temps of 110 degrees or warmer. Regardless of whether high temps wind up near 100, 105, or 110, it will be more than hot enough for people to suffer from heat exhaustion or heat stroke if outdoors for a prolonged period of time, or for people who are indoors with no air conditioning. This has helped push HeatRisk into the major category for the entire Portland metro, Salem, Eugene, Columbia River Gorge and Upper Hood River Valley. A major HeatRisk means anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration will be impacted, especially those who are particularly sensitive to heat. Be sure to do everything you can to stay cool during the upcoming heatwave, and don`t forget to check on your neighbors and loved ones from time to time. Lastly, never leave pets or people inside a hot car, and ensure your pets stay cool during this heatwave as well. Walking your dog in the afternoon will not be a good idea as their paws may easily burn. It`s also worth mentioning that overnight lows are looking quite warm with minimal overnight relief. As of right now, overnight lows will likely wind up in mid 60s to lower 70s. -TK && .

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This page offers some decent modeling info in a more user friendly way for those in the PNW
https://weathersigma.com/

https://weathersigma.com/maps

Here's another, currenlty set on the PNW, but lots of info here; 
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&p...

Here's a good site for weather records;
https://weather-reporter.com/report?report=25&state&station=0&report_per...

And one for general weather history;  (currently set on Porland)
https://weather-reporter.com/station?station=1&fbclid=IwY2xjawDwMkJleHRu...

It is extremely concerning to see a storm of this magnitude start in June, earliest on record as Ken pointed out...  

Here's the first two paragraphs of the latest NHC discussion. 140 kts = 161mph sustained winds. 

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

Data from a NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft tonight has been quite helpful in assessing Beryl's structure and intensity. Within the 
past hour, the aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 
157 kt in the northeastern quadrant. A typical 90 percent reduction 
translates to a maximum sustained wind of 140 kt, which makes Beryl a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. This is the 
earliest Category 5 hurricane observed in the Atlantic basin on 
record, and only the second Category 5 hurricane to occur in July after Hurricane Emily in 2005. 

Jamaica is next in line and looks to get hammered. 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/020252.shtml

10:30pm PT  pics (NWS)

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and sunset;